Security First: How War Is Reshaping Economic and Foreign Policy

The Big Picture: Key Points

  • The resurgence of major conflicts, such as the Russia–Ukraine War, has fundamentally altered the global decision-making trajectory, prioritizing security over economic growth and globalization.
  • Foreign policy is increasingly driven by military realities and security concerns, with governments investing in defense capabilities, border security, and intelligence systems.
  • The fusion of economics and security has become a central feature of foreign policy, with economic instruments being used as tools of strategic competition, and supply chains being restructured to reduce dependence on geopolitical rivals.
The return of war as a central factor in international relations has ushered in a new logic: security first, economics second but increasingly intertwined. This shift has significant implications for us foreign policy, as governments are no longer treating economic policy and foreign policy as separate domains. Instead, they are integrating them into a unified strategy aimed at safeguarding national interests. For much of the post–Cold War era, states prioritized economic growth, globalization, and cooperation. Markets expanded, trade deepened, and diplomacy often focused on integration rather than confrontation. However, the resurgence of major conflicts has altered this trajectory, and governments are now recalibrating their priorities. Economic policy is no longer just about efficiency and growth; it is about resilience, protection, and strategic survival. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization has expanded its defense posture, while countries across Europe and Asia have significantly increased military spending. This shift is not limited to traditional military powers, as even smaller and middle-income states are investing in defense capabilities, border security, and intelligence systems. The logic is clear: in an unpredictable world, vulnerability carries a higher cost than ever before. As a result, foreign policy doctrines are evolving. Diplomacy is still important, but it is increasingly backed by military credibility. States are no longer relying solely on dialogue; they are ensuring they have the power to defend their interests if dialogue fails. Perhaps the most profound transformation is the fusion of economics and security. Governments now treat economic instruments as tools of strategic competition, with sanctions, export controls, and trade restrictions becoming central features of foreign policy. The use of sanctions against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine illustrates this trend. Western countries leveraged their economic power to isolate Russia from global financial systems, demonstrating that economic pressure can function as a form of warfare, sometimes described as “economic statecraft.” At the same time, supply chains are being restructured, with countries reducing dependence on geopolitical rivals, especially in critical sectors such as energy, semiconductors, and food security.

Energy and the Politics of Survival

Energy has become one of the most critical battlegrounds in this new security-driven order. The disruption of energy supplies, particularly in Europe after the Russia–Ukraine War, has forced governments to rethink their energy strategies. States are diversifying energy sources, investing in renewables, and forming new partnerships. Control over strategic chokepoints, such as the Strait of Hormuz, has gained renewed importance, as any disruption could have global economic consequences.

Alliance Politics in a Fragmented World

The security-first approach has also reshaped alliances. Traditional alliances are being strengthened, while new ones are emerging. The European Union, for instance, is increasingly integrating security considerations into its economic policies. At the same time, many countries, particularly in the Global South, are adopting more flexible strategies, pursuing multi-vector foreign policies, and engaging with multiple powers to maximize their strategic autonomy. This reflects a broader shift toward a multipolar world, where power is distributed among several major actors rather than dominated by a single hegemon. One of the defining features of the current era is uncertainty, with conflicts becoming more complex, involving not just states but also non-state actors, cyber operations, and information warfare. The line between war and peace is increasingly blurred, with cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion becoming integral parts of geopolitical competition.

Implications for Small States and Emerging Regions

For smaller states and emerging regions, such as those in the Horn of Africa, the shift toward security-first policies presents both challenges and opportunities. On one hand, increased global competition can lead to external interference and instability. On the other, it creates space for strategic engagement, with states that can position themselves as reliable partners in security, trade, or logistics potentially benefiting from increased attention and investment.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the primary driver of the shift in global decision-making?
The primary driver is the resurgence of major conflicts, such as the Russia–Ukraine War, which has altered the global trajectory, prioritizing security over economic growth and globalization.
How are governments responding to the new security landscape?
Governments are investing in defense capabilities, border security, and intelligence systems, and are integrating economic policy and foreign policy into a unified strategy aimed at safeguarding national interests.
What are the implications of the security-first approach for smaller states and emerging regions?
The implications are both challenges and opportunities, with increased global competition potentially leading to external interference and instability, but also creating space for strategic engagement and potential benefits from increased attention and investment.

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